The Power of Copper
We mentioned Copper highs last week. Fresh highs and we may see more with tariffs. What’s interesting is the power of copper.
One tonne (or metric ton which is more than a ton) of copper brings functionality to 40 cars, powers 100,000 mobile phones, enables operations in 400 computers and distributes electricity to 30 homes. (internationalcopper.org)
The Changing Landscape of Marriage
The WSJ reports American women are giving up on marriage.
The share of women ages 18-40 who are single was 51.4% in 2023. Up from 41.8% in 2000.
This is an interesting trend because “grey” divorce numbers are very high as well. Navigating retirement without someone to share expenses with and help in the late years certainly takes some careful planning. Proactively budget, ensure you have a low cost shelter over your head and a plan for long-term care.
Profit Margins
The pattern shows corporate profit margins begin falling well before recessions begin. With margins near all-time highs, a recession soon would break the pattern for the first time ever! Earnings season begins next week. Look for the signals. 
Date: 1947 through 3/11/2025
Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P., Bravos Research
GDP Growth
Goldman Sachs research:
Keep in mind that there are currently 4 people in China and India for ever 1 person in the US so this should be no surprise…
Apple AI
Apple is working to revamp its Health app before its fall launch of upgrades and new products. Insiders hint the updates will include a new health coach powered by AI that will be like having a personalized doctor with you at all times. (jpost.com)
Ahhh the future of medicine. Will your doctor embrace this? As we get older, this may be the standard, 24/7 monitoring which will help us catch the problems before they occur!
Tariff Time is Upon Us
The WSJ reported last week the average US tariff rate (2.7%) on foreign goods was higher than the average rate in Canada (1.8%), Japan (2%), and Europe (2%).
With last week’s announcements combined with levies on China, steel, and aluminum, the effective US tariff rate is nearly 8%.
The highest in 75 years.
Oh, nevermind… maybe in 30 days. Would you trade this for no income tax? All goods would cost more but you’d save on income taxes… interesting theory, but the math tells me this hurts lower income producers like retirees while helping the higher income earners…
- One more tariff data point. JP Morgan states tariffs will increase inflation by 1.5 percentage points this year. Equivalent to the largest tax increase since the Revenue Act of 1968.
- The private sector in the US is in good shape compared to the 2008 crisis but government spending continues to grow.
Sources: Federal Reserve Board, NBER, Haver Analytics, Appollo Chief Economist
Scared to say it and am knocking on wood:
- Only 13 SP500 companies used the term “recession” on earnings calls from December to March. Well below the average of 80 per quarter. (3/10/25 marketwatch.com)
Did you see the chart on corporate profit margins above? They should be feeling good. Also keep an eye on my previous analysis of the amount of money in money market funds. In March it was over $7 Trillion and counting… kind of hard to go into a “recession” with that kind of cash laying around!