Each week, Scott will be sharing curated financial tidbits to help you stay informed and navigate the ever-changing financial landscape. Let us know your thoughts!

 

• Gold crossed $3,000 for the first time last week, but the majority of buyers are not US investors, it’s foreign central banks and governments. Total ETF holdings of Gold, where nongovernmental investors usually own their gold, are down, leaving plenty room for continued growth. 
  
  
  

(https://peterboockvar.substack.com/p/with-gold-at-3000-another-look-at)

Central banks know the value of gold in their portfolio but does the average US investor? It certainly does not appear so. Gold has a long history of being a safe haven during global tensions and turmoil, market downturns, and it is an inflation hedge that certainly protects from your currencies reduction in purchasing power. Because of this it is a wonderful diversification in your stock portfolio as well as your primary currency. Larger portfolios should always consider essential.

 

• Even with all the inflation talk, traders are still pricing in a ~ 60% chance of three rates cuts (or more!) this year. (investopedia.com)

Are you prepared for lower interest rates? Is your safe/stable portfolio locked in or are you going to follow the rates down? Cash, savings, money market accounts, short-term treasuries, etc are not your friend and are only for short-term placement when you have plans for the money.

  

• In the March University of Michigan consumer confidence index, the percentage of those expecting family income will exceed inflation over the coming five years fell to just 25.5%. (news.umich.edu) The lowest since this question was first asked in 1997.

Fears of stagflation mount as tariffs take their toll. Stagflation is a terrible economic situation characterized by simultaneous high inflation, slow economic growth, high unemployment and subsequently falling stock market prices.

 

• In a piece Monday morning in the WSJ it published the top five-year CD rates:
  (wsj.com 3/20/25)

KS StateBank 4.3%

Mountain America Credit Union 4.25%

Luana Savings Bank 4.19%

Synchrony Bank 4.15%

Does this look good to you? Why? Are you asking the right questions? Are they callable? Are they compound interest? Do they accept IRA or Roth savings? How much will you lose to taxation? Do you know what your alternatives are? Yes, these are all good questions and, yes, there are significantly better options out there than a 5yr CD and because of these better options, I have no idea why anyone who asks the right questions would ever invest in them….

 

• Neat chart from Apollo:  

(apolloacademy.com 3/15/25)

This provides a little balance to all the gloom and doom out there. Weekly indicators are showing quite a different picture.

   

• Almost half the years since 1980 have had a 10% pullback and 75% of years with 10%+ corrections still end positive – Meera Pandit, CFA, JPMorgan. (supported by schwab.com and cdwealth.com)

  

Remember, if you don’t immediately need the money, it is just turbulence. Do not invest emotionally. Allocate properly, knowing that turbulence is normal because missing the best 10 days of the year can crush returns and inevitably you’ll be sitting on the sidelines..

 

 

• The Apollo indicators above may be true, but this is still painful…
  

                (@charliebilello on X)

Yes, that’s correct, there is such a thing as a fartcoin… and yes, I own 13 of these investments (but not fartcoin) so, if you tell me that you are ready to sell, then I AM BUYING because this is a nice discount and there is a lot of cash sitting on the sidelines waiting for the deals..

  

• The Federal Bank of New York publishes regular consumer studies.  Recently it reported a record 8.5% of US consumers are not applying for loans because they expect to be rejected. More startling, only 63% of respondents said they could come up with $2,000 in an emergency, the lowest level since surveying began. 

I could extrapolate to infinity on this. 63% of people can’t come up with $2,000! Did they just interview 5-year-olds? Is this a result of parents always bailing their children out? Is this the result of our government bailing us out? Or maybe it is the lack of personal financial education… whatever the reason, this is terrible.

 

• Although Gold is in the spotlight with its highs, arguably the most important metal in the world, Copper, crossed $5.00 per pound.  Record number going back to the 1960s. (plus500.com)

U.S. tariffs on copper haven’t been formally announced but prices are already reacting in anticipation. International traders are moving quickly to import copper into the U.S. to capitalize on tariffless prices.

 

(ft.com)

 

Top theories: reading more short bursts v. books and essays, the rise of social media and algorithms selecting what we see, and the most disturbing with the upcoming rise of AI…reducing critical thinking. 

 

 

 

• NVDA held its conference last week, unveiling a multitude of innovations and forecasts on spending:
  
  

                Looks like it is doing just fine despite the 25% pullback in stock price…

 

               

• We don’t have a plan. The National Association of Estate Planners and Councils just released findings from its most recent study. 56% of Americans don’t have an up-to-date estate plan. 

If you care about NOT leaving your heirs a big painful mess, please fix this!

 

 

• Exit sign.  Bank of America’s fund manager survey showed the largest monthly decline in US equities positioning on record. Down 40%. 

That’s right, they are sitting on lots of cash right now, waiting for the bargains to show up. Get ready for a wild ride.

 

 

Scott M. Sandell, MBA
SES Services, LLC

 

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